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What is Projection?

Overview

A common phrase used to describe younger players is “projectable”. Being “projectable” can mean multiple things, and it’s important to separate out its meaning and when we should use the term. 

Mostly, all prospects are projectable to some extent, as even players arriving in the big leagues are generally not a finished product. The level at which we project players with different body types, different ages, and different tools varies from one to the next. 

Most young athletes have “projectable” bodies. When using the word, we’re specifically looking for those whose bodies project to resemble current major leaguers who are quality performers.  That being said, the vast majority of big-league pitchers are between 6’0” and 6’5”. 

At the same time, what makes baseball such a fantastic sport is that there are exceptions and outliers to every rule. Most big-league position players, depending on position, are between 5’9” and 6’3”. 

Most position players at the bottom of the height spectrum occupy middle infield spots or are speedy outfielders, while most position players at the top of the height spectrum occupy corner infield or outfield spots. 

Players who are unlikely to fill out, or those who are likely to put on and carry lots of extra weight/fat are not the types of players we label as “projectable” body types. It may be helpful to look at prominent big leaguers and see what they looked like as amateur players, especially by age. 

As players become older and more physically developed, the projectability of their body naturally decreases. 

Projectability when it comes to tools and skills is often related to physical projectability, but the physical component is not enough to project upon on its own. Players not only need tools and a projectable body, but they need the work ethic and aptitude for their game to improve too. 

Many players are physically gifted or have raw tools, but never turn those into skills at the professional level because they either don’t work at it enough or they don’t have feel for the game and learn exactly what they need to improve to get better.

Similarly to bodies, as players become older or move up levels and haven’t improved certain tools, it’s difficult to then expect much more improvement. 

The point of using the word “projectable” is to say that a player will get better, not that they simply have the potential to improve. Where scouts say they often miss on players is by underestimating or overestimating their makeup. 

Makeup is central to a lot of scouting, and it’s especially important in trying to figure out just how high a player’s ceiling is and how likely they are to achieve their potential.

Remember when writing your next scouting report how and when to use the word projectable.


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