Now that we know what tools to look for when it comes to hitters and pitchers and what grades apply to those tools, let’s dive into the concepts of present value and future value.
What is Present Value?
Present Value (PV) refers to how much value a player would have in the Major Leagues right now. When we described the scouting scale previously, player examples were used to describe their overall Present Value.
PV can be used to refer to tools as well, with it referring to how valuable a particular tool would be in the Major Leagues right now. We showed examples of player tools at different points on the scale.
Understandably, players who are prospects or minor leagues tend to have much lower PVs, as they have not fully developed their skill sets to the major league level yet. Conversely, players who are in their primes or on the older side of the aging curve likely have higher PV than what their Future Value is.
What is Future Value?
Future Value (FV) describes what a player’s future overall value or what a tool’s future may look like. Very few players arrive in the big leagues as finished products. Players continue to develop and may do so for years.
Players will worsen or improve, as the league responds to their strengths and weaknesses. A 60 FV prospect may not reach or sustain that level until his third or fourth year in the league.
Deciding exactly what that ceiling is and a player’s likelihood of reaching it is the key purpose of most scouting. “Projecting” refers to a scout’s decision to say that a player or a tool will get much better or worse over time.
A player may be more “projectable” based on a host of factors. If a player demonstrates tremendous bat-to-ball ability, but lacks the strength to impact the baseball yet, a scout may project that player’s hit tool to get significantly better if the player has room to add strength or to make swing adjustments.
Similarly, a young pitcher who throws in the 80’s but has a slender frame and room to add muscle may be projected to have FV velocity grades higher than the PV.
A 16-year-old international free agent with room for growth and a skinny body is generally much more projectable than a 23-year-old college senior. Not only are there physical projections scouts must make, but they also have to consider gains in maturity.
Because of the amount of risk that exists in any young prospect, most scouts don’t use a great deal of separation between present and future value and will wait to see how certain players perform at different levels before revising Future Values upward.
For example, if a scout puts a 50 present value on a player, a common future potential grade could be a 55. In order to jump 10 or more points on the scale, significant proof would have to exist.
Summary
Predicting the Future Value of a player is very difficult. But it’s the overall summary of a player that scouts are judged upon.
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