Although it’s not usually thought of this way, scouting is based on probability. A scout is taking their own experience, the profile of a certain player and their tools, that player’s mental acumen and makeup, and deciding what that player will be several years down the road. Because so much of scouting is based on historical and past examples, scouts are often playing the odds with certain types of players.
To answer the question, risk is simply the unknown about a player. The further the player is away from the big leagues or the more questions we have about a player’s tools and how they will play in professional baseball, the larger a risk a team is taking by acquiring that player. There are many different outcomes for those players, including injuries or regression or a simple lack of improvement.
As an example, a player who is drafted or acquired as a shortstop may move off that position. Major League shortstops are generally players who have been the best defensive player on nearly every team they’ve played on, and only a few can achieve that status in the big leagues. But a player who plays shortstop can likely move to less demanding positions where they can still excel.
If they have other tools in addition to their glove, that gives them a lower-risk profile. On the other hand, if a player is already stuck in left field or at first base out of high school, this player is likely going to really need to hit and hit for power at every single level to have a shot at the big leagues.
This is why teams tend to draft more athletic players in the first couple rounds, while waiting on 1B-only or poor defensive picks for their later picks.
Different teams’ tolerance of risk will vary. A team who picks later in the draft may take a chance on a player who has an injury history or questionable command or a questionable hit tool, because they believe in that player’s upside.
Some teams will lean toward college players who already have a multiple year track record and thus have lower risk and less unknown about them.
The level of risk you are willing to tolerate is up to you as a scout, but it’s something that should be noted when submitting a report.
Comments